U.S. Macro Insights
- How fast will the economy grow over the next quarter/year/decade? What about employment? Inflation? Equities? Rates?
- How would a government shutdown affect the U.S. economy?
- Which sectors are likely to drive a recovery? What warning signs should market participants follow?
- What if MA is wrong? About housing, Fed policy, or anything else? How would alternative outcomes affect the MA forecast?
MA’s US Macro Insights Service (USMI) is designed to keep clients up-to-date on U.S. economic and financial market developments and prospects. Through an array of reports, watches, conferences, and direct access to MA economists, USMI clients receive MA’s take on key high-frequency data and financial market developments, updates on MA’s views of the outlook and policy, frequent topical pieces on key issues in the outlook, and regular reports conveying the details and the underlying logic of MA’s model-based US forecast.
Clients of USMI have unlimited access MA’s economists for questions about MA’s analysis, data requests, and custom analysis.They also receive invitations to MA’s quarterly conferences.
The USMI Service includes the following commentaries:
MA’s monthly U.S. economic forecast
|Clients gain a detailed understanding of the forces that shape the MA forecast, how these forces interact with each other, and how the economy is likely to evolve over the next 2-3 years.|
Frequently updated current quarter GDP forecasts using MA’s proprietary methodology
|Provides an analytically rigorous understanding of how each release will change the official GDP estimate, far ahead of the government release.|
|Weekly Economic Commentary
A preview of the coming week’s economic news
|Clients get an assessment of the previous week’s data and can prepare for how the coming week’s data may affect MA’s forecast and the markets.|
|Macro Focus Series||Clients receive commentaries on important topics that affect the economic outlook.|
MA regularly publishes alternatives to its base forecast.
|Scenarios may focus on different assumptions about key data (e.g., housing or the path of oil prices) or explore the effects of different potential policy outcomes, allowing clients to plan across a range of potential outcomes.|
|Quarterly Conferences||In addition to MA’s team, clients have the opportunity to hear from outside experts on the most important topics shaping the economic outlook.|
|Fed Focus||Issued following each of the eight FOMC meetings, Fed Focus summarizes MA’s view of the underlying motivation for the current stance of Federal Reserve policy, and discusses the forces shaping, and our expectations for, prospective Fed policy.|
|US Macro Dashboard||The US Macro Dashboard is released one day following the release of the forecast. It is an information-rich one-page textual and graphical summary of the MA forecast, focusing on themes, underlying assumptions, comparison to the consensus and the key top-line elements of the MA forecast.|
|Macro Watches||Our Macro Watches focus on individual sectors of the economy, and bring together related high-frequency data and forecasts of key series from MA’s U.S. forecast. Watches are continuously updated on the website as data they contain are released, and are sent to clients once each month after the forecast is released as a compendium of Watches. Watches cover the following subject areas: financial conditions, inflation, the consumer sector, employment, housing, the international sector, and fiscal policy.|
|Forecast Themes and Risks||Forecast Themes and Risks is a quarterly report that serves as a brief but complete thematic statement of the MA forecast. It contains a qualitative discussion of risks around the forecast and important details which make our forecast differ from the consensus or market expectations.|
|Long Term Outlook||This semi-annual report details and interprets MA’s quarterly long-term forecast, which extends 10 years. The short-term portion of the long-term forecast is always consistent with the most recent short-term base forecast. The focus of the report is the forces that shape the long-term outlook such as demographics, productivity, fiscal policy, and monetary policy targets.|