Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December following a robust, 0.8% increase in November. The December growth rate largely reflected strength in PCE that was partially offset by small declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports. The level of monthly GDP in December was 1.5% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the first quarter are moderate increases over January, February, and March that average about 0.1% per month (not annualized). Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
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Monthly GDP rose 0.8% in November, following a 0.3% decline in October that was revised down from a previously reported 0.1% decline. The jump in November reflected sizable gains in both inventory investment and domestic final sales, with little contribution from net exports. Averaged over October and November, monthly GDP was 1.5% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a 0.3% increase in monthly GDP in December. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in October following a 0.1% increase in September that was revised higher by one-tenth. The slight decline in October reflected a decline in net exports that was partially offset by modest increases in domestic final sales and nonfarm inventory investment. The level of GDP in October was only 0.3% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a solid, 0.7% increase in monthly GDP in November, driven by increases in inventory investment and net exports. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in August following a flat reading in July that was revised up one-tenth. The increase in August reflected positive contributions from nonfarm inventory investment and net exports that were partially offset by a negative contribution from domestic final sales. The level of GDP in August was 3.8% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate, indicating the US economy was benefiting from solid momentum prior to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Our latest forecast of 2.7% GDP growth in the third quarter assumes a 0.5% (monthly rate) decline in September, reflecting our assumptions for the effects of the hurricanes. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in July following robust increases over the prior two months. The small decrease in July reflected estimated declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports that were nearly offset by a solid increase in PCE and smaller increases elsewhere in domestic final sales. The level of GDP in July was 2.4% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 3.4% GDP growth in Q3 are increases in monthly GDP in August and September of 0.2% to 0.3% per month (not annualized). Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
MA’s Chris Varvares, senior managing director at Macroeconomic Advisers, discusses jobs and immigration with Tyler Mathisen and Sue Herera on CNBC’s Nightly Business Report. Click here to watch the video.
Monthly GDP rose 0.4% in June following a 1.1% increase in May that was revised up from a previously reported 0.7% gain. The increase in June was mainly accounted for by estimated increases in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports. Domestic final sales were essentially flat in June, as a solid increase in PCE was offset by decreases in fixed investment and the portion of monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data. The data on monthly GDP through June are consistent with our latest tracking estimate of 2.9% GDP growth in the second quarter. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Macroeconomic Advisers’ Pre-FOMC Briefing Webinar Thursday, July 20th 10:30 AM – 11:05 AM EST Ken Matheny, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers will discuss MA’s views of the policy and economic backdrop for the meeting and our expectations for near-term Fed policy. To find out how to register for the webinar contact Tonya Cooksey by phone (314.721.4747) or email (firstname.lastname@example.org).
MA’s Ken Matheny was quoted in the article, “Boring is best as Fed contemplates smaller balance sheet” by David Nicklaus of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. (Excerpts shown below.) It was a big deal when the Federal Reserve bought trillions of dollars in bonds to boost the economy. Now that the Fed is about to reverse the process, we’re told it will be about as exciting as watching paint dry. Why the difference? For one thing, we’re not in a financial crisis, and the Fed plans to subtract those trillions more gradually than it added them. So far, markets have reacted calmly as one Fed official after another has discussed the balance-sheet reduction process. “It’s not really going to have a major impact on the outlook for bond yields,” said Ken Matheny, an economist at Macroeconomic Advisers. “Markets should be very well prepared for this, because the Fed has told us … Continue Reading
Macroeconomic Advisers is proud to be recognized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago for The Best Overall Forecast, The Best Current Dollar GDP Forecast, and The Best Inflation Forecast submitted at the 2016 Automotive Outlook Symposium. The highly respected national competition received over 27 entries from the manufacturing and banking industries, as well as consulting and service firms and academia. Winners represent the best work from the most respected forecasting firms and Macroeconomic Advisers is proud to be acknowledged for its accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts. “We are honored to be acknowledged by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and are proud of the exceptional content created by our forecasting team. We pride ourselves in having the most experienced team of economist focused on U.S. macroeconomics in the private sector. Our economists work assiduously to add value and accuracy through its forecast and market analysis, and to be recognized … Continue Reading