Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in January following a 0.1% increase in December that was revised down one-tenth. The January decline reflected subtractions from residential investment, PCE, and net exports that were partially offset by an increase in nonfarm inventory investment. The level of monthly GDP in January was 0.7% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of 1.8% (annualized) growth of real GDP in the first quarter are increases in monthly GDP in February and March of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December following a robust, 0.8% increase in November. The December growth rate largely reflected strength in PCE that was partially offset by small declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports. The level of monthly GDP in December was 1.5% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the first quarter are moderate increases over January, February, and March that average about 0.1% per month (not annualized). Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.