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MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Slipped 0.1% in October

Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in October following a 0.1% increase in September that was revised higher by one-tenth.  The slight decline in October reflected a decline in net exports that was partially offset by modest increases in domestic final sales and nonfarm inventory investment.  The level of GDP in October was only 0.3% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a solid, 0.7% increase in monthly GDP in November, driven by increases in inventory investment and net exports.   Click here for more information … Continue Reading

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.3% in August

Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in August following a flat reading in July that was revised up one-tenth.  The increase in August reflected positive contributions from nonfarm inventory investment and net exports that were partially offset by a negative contribution from domestic final sales.  The level of GDP in August was 3.8% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate, indicating the US economy was benefiting from solid momentum prior to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.  Our latest forecast of 2.7% GDP growth in the third quarter assumes a 0.5% (monthly rate) decline in September, reflecting our assumptions for the effects of … Continue Reading

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Slipped 0.1% in July

Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in July following robust increases over the prior two months. The small decrease in July reflected estimated declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports that were nearly offset by a solid increase in PCE and smaller increases elsewhere in domestic final sales. The level of GDP in July was 2.4% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 3.4% GDP growth in Q3 are increases in monthly GDP in August and September of 0.2% to 0.3% per month (not annualized).   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly … Continue Reading