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MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.5% in March

Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in March, following a flat reading in February that was revised down five-tenths.  The increase in March reflected solid contributions from PCE and net exports that were partially offset by a large subtraction from nonfarm inventory investment.  The level of GDP in March was 1.5% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate, implying decent momentum in GDP heading into the second quarter.  Implicit in our forecast of 3.2% GDP growth in the second quarter are increases in monthly GDP that average 0.2% per month.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure. 

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.5% in February

Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in February, more than reversing a 0.3% decline in January (that was revised lower from a 0.1% decline).  The rebound in monthly GDP in February was broad based across components, as rising contributions were exhibited in PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, net exports, and inventory investment.  Averaged over January and February, monthly GDP was 1.2% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate.  Our latest forecast of 1.8% GDP growth in the first quarter assumes a 0.2% increase in monthly GDP in March.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure. 

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Slipped 0.1% in January

Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in January following a 0.1% increase in December that was revised down one-tenth.  The January decline reflected subtractions from residential investment, PCE, and net exports that were partially offset by an increase in nonfarm inventory investment.  The level of monthly GDP in January was 0.7% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our forecast of 1.8% (annualized) growth of real GDP in the first quarter are increases in monthly GDP in February and March of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.2% in December

Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December following a robust, 0.8% increase in November.  The December growth rate largely reflected strength in PCE that was partially offset by small declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports.  The level of monthly GDP in December was 1.5% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the first quarter are moderate increases over January, February, and March that average about 0.1% per month (not annualized).   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.