MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.7% in February

Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in February, reversing January’s 0.7% decline. The February increase was largely accounted for by increases in domestic final sales and net exports. Nonfarm inventory investment rose somewhat in February, but less than we were expecting prior to this morning’s advance report on inventories and trade. The level of GDP in February was 1.2% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 1.1% GDP growth in the first quarter is a solid, 0.6% increase in monthly GDP in March. Two-tenths of this increase reflects an assumed rebound in PCE on electric and gas utilities following a depressed level in February. Another two-tenths reflects an assumed increase in nonfarm inventory investment.


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