MA’s Ben Herzon was quoted in the article, “Is the Economy Overdue for a Recession” by Annie Lowrey of The Atlantic (excerpts shown below).
Recessions do have a way of coming around every six or eight or ten years. But economists caution against confusing the length of an expansion with its maturity, and against conflating historical probabilities with forward-facing predictions. There’s no reason the current spell of growth could not outlast the Trump administration, they say. Expansions don’t die of old age.
“This is a really long expansion,” said Ben Herzon, a senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers, a St. Louis-based economic research firm. “But the length itself does not tell us anything about the likelihood of a recession in the next year, or five years.”
Still an economy close to full employment, which the United States seems to be, tends to grow for a shorter period of time than an economy far from it, Herzon said. “It’s not the age, but the maturity, that matters.” (As in so many things.) When the unemployment rate drops low enough to spur inflation—specifically, three-tenths of a percentage point or more below the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, as determined by the Congressional Budget Office—the probability of a recession climbs. (click her for article)