Monthly GDP declined 0.6% in December, and growth for November was revised down by three-tenths. The decline in December reflected a sharp deceleration in PCE and a large decline in net exports; nonfarm inventory investment declined somewhat. The level of GDP in December was 0.8% below the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest tracking forecast of 2.4% annualized growth of GDP in the first quarter assumes increases in monthly GDP during the first quarter that average 0.4% per month (not annualized).
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