Monthly GDP declined 0.6% in December, reversing about ¾ of a cumulative 0.8% increase over the prior two months. A majority of the December decline was accounted for by decreases in net exports and nonfarm inventory investment, but domestic final sales also posted a decline. The level of GDP in December was 1.1% below the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 1.7% annualized GDP growth in the first quarter are average increases in monthly GDP of 0.4% per month (not annualized).
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