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MA’s Ken Matheny Quoted in St. Louis Post-Dispatch

MA’s Ken Matheny was quoted in the article, “Fed rate increases move from a crawl to a walk” by By David Nicklaus of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. (Excerpts shown below) Not long ago, the mere mention of higher interest rates sent financial markets into a tizzy. Now, markets are shrugging off, and maybe celebrating, the fact that the Federal Reserve just quickened its pace of rate increases from a crawl to a walk. Stocks remain near record highs, bonds are stable and the dollar is little changed. In December, markets and many economists didn’t believe a Fed forecast that implied three … Continue Reading

MA’s Ken Matheny Quoted in USA Today

MA’s Ken Matheny was quoted in the article, The Fed raises interest rates again, saying ‘economy is doing well’ by Paul Davidson with USA Today. (excerpts shown below). “The Fed on Wednesday raised its benchmark short-term rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 0.75% to 1% and stuck to its forecast of two more such increases this year and three in 2018. Some economists had expected Fed policymakers to modestly step up the pace. With the Fed more confident that inflation is moving higher, “It’s now going to switch to more regular, more predictable path of rate hikes,” … Continue Reading

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Declined 0.8% in January

Monthly GDP declined 0.8% in January, setting up the first quarter for a soft reading.  The sharp decline in January reflected declines in final sales and inventory investment.  Within final sales, real PCE was weak, in large part reflecting a weather-related decline in consumption of electric and gas utilities.  Also pulling down final sales was a sharp decline in state-and-local construction and a large increase in imports.  Nonfarm inventory investment fell in February, the second consecutive decline following an elevated level in November.  The level of GDP in January was 1.6% below the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit … Continue Reading

MA’s Ben Herzon Quoted in The Atlantic

MA’s Ben Herzon was quoted in the article, “Is the Economy Overdue for a Recession” by Annie Lowrey of The Atlantic (excerpts shown below). Recessions do have a way of coming around every six or eight or ten years. But economists caution against confusing the length of an expansion with its maturity, and against conflating historical probabilities with forward-facing predictions. There’s no reason the current spell of growth could not outlast the Trump administration, they say. Expansions don’t die of old age. “This is a really long expansion,” said Ben Herzon, a senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers, a St. Louis-based … Continue Reading