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MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.3% in August

Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in August following a flat reading in July that was revised up one-tenth.  The increase in August reflected positive contributions from nonfarm inventory investment and net exports that were partially offset by a negative contribution from domestic final sales.  The level of GDP in August was 3.8% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate, indicating the US economy was benefiting from solid momentum prior to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.  Our latest forecast of 2.7% GDP growth in the third quarter assumes a 0.5% (monthly rate) decline in September, reflecting our assumptions for the effects of … Continue Reading

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Slipped 0.1% in July

Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in July following robust increases over the prior two months. The small decrease in July reflected estimated declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports that were nearly offset by a solid increase in PCE and smaller increases elsewhere in domestic final sales. The level of GDP in July was 2.4% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 3.4% GDP growth in Q3 are increases in monthly GDP in August and September of 0.2% to 0.3% per month (not annualized).   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly … Continue Reading

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.4% in June

Monthly GDP rose 0.4% in June following a 1.1% increase in May that was revised up from a previously reported 0.7% gain.  The increase in June was mainly accounted for by estimated increases in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports.  Domestic final sales were essentially flat in June, as a solid increase in PCE was offset by decreases in fixed investment and the portion of monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data.  The data on monthly GDP through June are consistent with our latest tracking estimate of 2.9% GDP growth in the second quarter.   Click here for … Continue Reading