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MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.5% in February

Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in February, more than reversing a 0.3% decline in January (that was revised lower from a 0.1% decline).  The rebound in monthly GDP in February was broad based across components, as rising contributions were exhibited in PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, net exports, and inventory investment.  Averaged over January and February, monthly GDP was 1.2% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate.  Our latest forecast of 1.8% GDP growth in the first quarter assumes a 0.2% increase in monthly GDP in March.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure. 

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Slipped 0.1% in January

Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in January following a 0.1% increase in December that was revised down one-tenth.  The January decline reflected subtractions from residential investment, PCE, and net exports that were partially offset by an increase in nonfarm inventory investment.  The level of monthly GDP in January was 0.7% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our forecast of 1.8% (annualized) growth of real GDP in the first quarter are increases in monthly GDP in February and March of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.2% in December

Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December following a robust, 0.8% increase in November.  The December growth rate largely reflected strength in PCE that was partially offset by small declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports.  The level of monthly GDP in December was 1.5% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the first quarter are moderate increases over January, February, and March that average about 0.1% per month (not annualized).   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure. 

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Jumped 0.8% in November

Monthly GDP rose 0.8% in November, following a 0.3% decline in October that was revised down from a previously reported 0.1% decline.  The jump in November reflected sizable gains in both inventory investment and domestic final sales, with little contribution from net exports.  Averaged over October and November, monthly GDP was 1.5% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a 0.3% increase in monthly GDP in December.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.