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MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.2% in December

Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December following a robust, 0.8% increase in November.  The December growth rate largely reflected strength in PCE that was partially offset by small declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports.  The level of monthly GDP in December was 1.5% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the first quarter are moderate increases over January, February, and March that average about 0.1% per month (not annualized).   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure. 

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Jumped 0.8% in November

Monthly GDP rose 0.8% in November, following a 0.3% decline in October that was revised down from a previously reported 0.1% decline.  The jump in November reflected sizable gains in both inventory investment and domestic final sales, with little contribution from net exports.  Averaged over October and November, monthly GDP was 1.5% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a 0.3% increase in monthly GDP in December.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Slipped 0.1% in October

Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in October following a 0.1% increase in September that was revised higher by one-tenth.  The slight decline in October reflected a decline in net exports that was partially offset by modest increases in domestic final sales and nonfarm inventory investment.  The level of GDP in October was only 0.3% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a solid, 0.7% increase in monthly GDP in November, driven by increases in inventory investment and net exports.   Click here for more information … Continue Reading

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.3% in August

Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in August following a flat reading in July that was revised up one-tenth.  The increase in August reflected positive contributions from nonfarm inventory investment and net exports that were partially offset by a negative contribution from domestic final sales.  The level of GDP in August was 3.8% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate, indicating the US economy was benefiting from solid momentum prior to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.  Our latest forecast of 2.7% GDP growth in the third quarter assumes a 0.5% (monthly rate) decline in September, reflecting our assumptions for the effects of … Continue Reading