Monthly GDP surged 0.8% in November, while increases in September and October were revised up two-tenths and one-tenth, respectively. More than half of the November increase was accounted for by PCE, reflecting widespread strength across various categories. Increases in net exports and nonfarm inventory investment also contributed to the November gain. Averaged over October and November, monthly GDP was 3.3% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest tracking estimate of 3.2% annualized growth of GDP in the fourth quarter assumes a 0.4% decline (not annualized) in December, reversing one-half of the November increase. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP rose 0.1% in October, while September was revised up three-tenths to a decline of 0.1%. The small increase in October was mainly accounted for by final sales, as increases in PCE, construction, and net exports were only partially offset by decreases in capital goods and others. The level of monthly GDP in October was 0.9% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.5% annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter are increases in monthly GDP over November and December that average 0.3% (not annualized) per month. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.