MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.3% in June

Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in June, continuing a four-month run of solid increases following weak readings during the winter.  The increase in June was mostly accounted for by a sharp increase in net exports.  Elsewhere, an increase in domestic final sales (mainly in PCE) was offset by a decline in nonfarm inventory investment.  The level of monthly GDP in June was 1.2% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate.  Our latest forecast of 3.2% GDP growth in the third quarter includes increases in monthly GDP during the third quarter that average about 0.2% (not annualized) per month.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.2% in May

Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in May following an April increase that was revised up two-tenths to 0.3%.  After declining sharply in December and January, monthly GDP has risen steadily at an average annual rate of 2.5%.  The increase in May reflected increases in domestic final sales (outside of PCE) and net exports and a decline in nonfarm inventory investment.  The level of monthly GDP in May was 2.8% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our forecast of 2.9% annualized GDP growth in the second quarter is a 0.3% increase (not annualized) in June.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.