Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in June, continuing a four-month run of solid increases following weak readings during the winter. The increase in June was mostly accounted for by a sharp increase in net exports. Elsewhere, an increase in domestic final sales (mainly in PCE) was offset by a decline in nonfarm inventory investment. The level of monthly GDP in June was 1.2% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest forecast of 3.2% GDP growth in the third quarter includes increases in monthly GDP during the third quarter that average about 0.2% (not annualized) per month. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in May following an April increase that was revised up two-tenths to 0.3%. After declining sharply in December and January, monthly GDP has risen steadily at an average annual rate of 2.5%. The increase in May reflected increases in domestic final sales (outside of PCE) and net exports and a decline in nonfarm inventory investment. The level of monthly GDP in May was 2.8% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of 2.9% annualized GDP growth in the second quarter is a 0.3% increase (not annualized) in June. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.