MA’s Joel Prakken was mentioned in the article “Fed leader hints at continued stimulus” by Gail MarksJarvis for the Chicago Tribune (excerpt shown below). Outside of the Fed, some economists continue to see risks for the economy. Joel Prakken, senior managing director of Macroeconomic Advisers, told economists on a National Association for Business Economics conference call Tuesday that he’s expecting global trauma to weigh on the U.S. economy this year and into 2017. He’s not expecting a recession, but he said that if the Federal Reserve doesn’t continue to keep interest rates at zero, the unemployment rate could be at 5.5 percent in 2017 compared to 5.3 percent in July and inflation will still be disturbingly low. Even with the Fed’s continued stimulus, he expects the economy to stay bogged down by the global drag. Click here for article
Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in June. Revisions to previous months were mixed and reflect the annual revisions of the NIPA’s; the broad contours of the monthly profile in recent months were little changed. The moderate increase in monthly GDP in June was more than accounted for by an increase in nonfarm inventory investment that was reinforced by a small increase in domestic final sales. Partially offsetting these was a decline in net exports. The level of monthly GDP in June was 1.0% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest forecast of 2.2% annualized growth of GDP in the third quarter is consistent with increases in monthly GDP during the third quarter that average 0.1% per month (not annualized). Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.