Macroeconomic Advisers was mentioned in the article “It Looks Like the U.S. Economy May Not Have Shrunk This Year After All” by Matthew Boesler (excerpts shown below). Federal Reserve officials confused by unexpected economic weakness in the first three months of 2015 can take heart in data that suggest the growth picture isn’t as bad as previously thought. U.S. gross domestic product looks to be about unchanged in the first quarter, forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers said Thursday following the release of better-than-expected data on U.S. retail sales from the Commerce Department in Washington. While no growth is hardly anything to boast about, it definitely looks better than the 0.7 percent annualized rate of contraction that the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculated in its second estimate of first-quarter GDP published last month. Moreover, the second quarter is starting to look good as well. Retail sales excluding spending on automobiles, gasoline, food … Continue Reading
Monthly GDP rose 0.8% in April, more than reversing a 0.5% decline in March that was revised up from a 1.0% decline. The sharp increase in April was nearly accounted for by a sharp increase in net exports, which have been buffeted over the last couple of months by the effects of the West Coast port slowdown and resolution. Outside of net exports, domestic final sales were weak and nonfarm inventory investment was solid. The level of GDP in April was 2.3% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.5% GDP growth in the second quarter is essentially no growth of monthly GDP averaged over May and June. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.