MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.5% in March

Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in March, following a flat reading in February that was revised down five-tenths.  The increase in March reflected solid contributions from PCE and net exports that were partially offset by a large subtraction from nonfarm inventory investment.  The level of GDP in March was 1.5% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate, implying decent momentum in GDP heading into the second quarter.  Implicit in our forecast of 3.2% GDP growth in the second quarter are increases in monthly GDP that average 0.2% per month.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure. 

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.5% in February

Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in February, more than reversing a 0.3% decline in January (that was revised lower from a 0.1% decline).  The rebound in monthly GDP in February was broad based across components, as rising contributions were exhibited in PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, net exports, and inventory investment.  Averaged over January and February, monthly GDP was 1.2% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate.  Our latest forecast of 1.8% GDP growth in the first quarter assumes a 0.2% increase in monthly GDP in March.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.