Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in September following a 0.2% increase in August that was revised up from a previously reported 0.2% decline. Most of the increase in September was accounted for by contributions from nonfarm inventories and net exports, both of which we expect to subtract from monthly GDP in the coming months. Domestic final sales made a small positive contribution in September. The level of monthly GDP in September was 2.0% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.0% growth in the fourth quarter are readings on monthly GDP that are on average flat over the fourth quarter. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP declined 0.2% in August following a 0.1% decline in July that was initially estimated as flat. The decline in August was more than accounted for by a sharp decline in net exports. Domestic final sales posted a healthy increase while nonfarm inventory investment was little changed. Averaged over July and August, monthly GDP was 0.7% above the second quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest forecast of 1.3% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter has implicit a 0.5% increase (not annualized) in monthly GDP in September. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.