MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.1% in August

Monthly GDP rose 0.1% in August on the heels of a large, 0.6% increase in July.  The August increase reflected increases in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports that were nearly offset by a decline in domestic final sales.  Averaged over July and August, monthly GDP was 2.3% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate.  Implicit in our latest estimate of 2.6% GDP growth in the third quarter is a 0.2% increase (not annualized) in monthly GDP in September, which is led by an assumed 0.3% increase in real PCE.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.

MA and CNBC Bring Attention to Presidential Poll Numbers and the Stock Market

“Macroeconomic Advisers set out to study the correlation between stock prices and which candidate was leading in the polls. It used as its benchmark Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight tracking, which runs election simulations based on polls and economic conditions. The firm then translated those terms into the trend of the equity risk premium, or the extra return on stocks that investors demand over a low-risk investment like bonds,” wrote Jeff Cox, CNBC finance editor. Click here to read the article describing MA’s analysis.