Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in August, continuing a six-month run of solid increases following weak readings during the winter. The August increase was more than accounted for by domestic final sales; net exports and nonfarm inventory investment declined in August. Over the 6 months ending in August, monthly GDP rose steadily at a 4.4% average annual rate. Our latest tracking estimate of 3.3% GDP growth in the third quarter assumes a 0.2% decline (not annualized) in September. Were monthly GDP to instead increase 0.4% in September (the trailing 6-month average), Q3 GDP growth would be 4.1%. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in July, continuing a five-month run of solid increases following weak readings during the winter. About two-thirds of the increase in July was accounted for by a jump in the pace of nonfarm inventory investment, with the balance accounted for by a sharp increase in construction spending. There were offsetting movements elsewhere in the details of monthly GDP. The level of monthly GDP in July was 2.9% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest tracking forecast of 3.5% GDP growth in the third quarter assumes increases in August and September that average 0.1% per month (not annualized). Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.