Monthly GDP rose 0.1% in April following a 0.3% increase in March that was revised down sharply from a previously estimated 0.7% increase. The modest increase in April was more or less accounted for by a jump in nonfarm inventory investment that was nearly offset by declines in PCE and net exports. The level of monthly GDP in April was 1.4% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest forecast of 3.7% GDP growth in the second quarter assumes increases over May and June that average 0.5% per month. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in March following a 0.2% increase in February. The two-month increase exactly reversed a 2-month decline over December and January that likely reflected the effects of unseasonably harsh winter weather. The March increase was mostly accounted for by a sharp increase in PCE. The level of monthly GDP in March was 2.0% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest tracking forecast of 3.7% annualized GDP growth in the second quarter assumes average monthly increases of 0.2% per month (not annualized) from April through June. Click here for more information on MA’s measure of Monthly GDP.