MA’s Joel Prakken and Chris Varvares were mentioned in the Fiscal Times article titled, “Revenge of the Killer Skittles and a Promise Trump Can’t Keep” (excerpts shown below). In a speech before the Economics Club of NY, Trump, among a number of other improbable promises, said that his policies would create an additional 25 million jobs over the next 10 years. In a brief two-page analysis, MA’s Joel Prakken and Chris Varvares assessed his likelihood of success. In the end, they find that for Trump to make good on his promise, the decades-long slide in the US labor force participation rate would have to execute an immediate about-face, and soar to the highest rates ever recorded within the space of 10 years. Click here to read the full article.
Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in July following a 0.3% increase in June that was revised up three-tenths. The solid increase in July was evenly split between gains in domestic final sales and net exports; nonfarm inventory investment was little changed in July. Leading the increase in domestic final sales were robust gains in PCE and nonresidential fixed investment. The level of monthly GDP in July was 2.7% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of 3.2% GDP in the third quarter are increases in August and September of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively (not annualized). Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.