Monthly GDP rose 0.1% in October, while September was revised up three-tenths to a decline of 0.1%. The small increase in October was mainly accounted for by final sales, as increases in PCE, construction, and net exports were only partially offset by decreases in capital goods and others. The level of monthly GDP in October was 0.9% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.5% annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter are increases in monthly GDP over November and December that average 0.3% (not annualized) per month. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP declined 0.4% in September, the first decline since January 2014, when unseasonably harsh winter weather hampered aggregate production. The decline in September was mainly accounted for by declines in net exports and PCE. There were smaller and more or less offsetting changes in other components. The level of monthly GDP in September was 0.7% below the third-quarter average at an annual rate, implying weak statistical momentum heading into the fourth quarter. Our latest forecast of 2.1% GDP growth in the fourth quarter assumes increases in monthly GDP over the three months of the fourth quarter that average 0.3% per month. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.